If I Were a Betting Man

Ahhhh, yes, the Super Bowl. Many people use it as a way to relax with friends (though I would argue considerably less of our neighbors to the north do, trust me), many people use it as a last ditch effort to make a little side dough before spring time (which, may I remind you is now a full six weeks away thanks to that damn groundhog). I will be doing both. Well, sort of. I will be relaxing in the comfort of my own…. hotel room. Sure, I could go catch it at a bar. But who wants to sit at a bar by themselves for the Super Bowl? So I will be in my hotel room, laying in bed in front of the splendid 42” flat screen the Marriott has provided me with. If all goes well on Saturday, I will have some snacks and maybe even a few government-purchased adult beverages. Beside me will be the trusty laptop tuned into my favorite website for, uhh, making some extra dough. As many of you know, you can find all sorts of things to lay money on, and they update as the game moves along. Below I am listing a few of the things I’ve seen so far that have me thinking of staking some of my hard-earned Canadian dollars. Of course, this is only my unproven opinion and I DO NOT suggest that you follow-suit. Feel free to let everyone know what you are considering, as well as how much you think I’m going to lose on these little puppies. I’ll be sure to check in next week and let you know how I did (remember folks, I’m not exactly a high roller) and maybe I’ll even find the time to update some options in-game. Until then, enjoy (or at least take a look, it’s gotta be worth the laugh, right?).

To be completely honest, I am going on emotion here, so keep that in mind when you decide to bad-mouth me or if you, for some God-forsaken reason, decide to put some mullah down. I am a HUGE Peyton Manning fan and therefore, have a place in my heart for the Colts. So, with that in mind, I am mostly laying my cash on the Indy side of the table for Sunday. However, I do think you could see some cash by going with the Saints. I think Brees probably has a good day and I think all the Saints receivers could have decent days in terms of number of receptions, so keep an eye on those options. However, I don’t like them enough to put my own money down so I won’t take the time to let you know your options, you kind find those here. What I will be doing is laying some cash on several different options for Colts players.

First up, Mr. Austin Collie. The guy has been good to me this year. I snagged him in fantasy and he took me to the playoffs (not single-handedly, but he sure as hell helped). Ever since I realized just how much Peyton checks down, I’ve been watching the secondary receivers for Indy. I put some dough on him in the last round and wish I would have put more. My favorite option here is on the number of catches. As of last night it was +/- 3.5. I will take the over on the one until he gets traded or signs elsewhere as a free agent. I also like him to go over on the +/-50.5 yards. It’s not a lock as the Saints may have noticed the day he had in the AFC Championship game, but if they decide to bring the pressure they’ve talked about, I think Peyton will make sure Collie, Garcon and Clark all have stellar days.

Speaking of those guys, how about Pierre Garcon and Dallas Clark? Well, Garcon, as has been well publicized, is from Haiti and has mentioned a few times that he really wants to give the folks back home something to talk about other than the earthquake. I have no doubt he will have a similar day to Collie, and maybe a little more. Garcon is a nice deep-ball threat, but still runs some underneath routs (that’s the beauty of that Colts offense folks). The options for Garcon are +/- 4.5 receptions, +/- 60.5 receiving yards, +/-25.5 yards on longest reception, as well as a few others. I think these are all decent options, though I am more excited about Collie.

And now for the big TE, Dallas Clark (who, for those of you living under a rock, played at THEE university of Iowa). Everyone has heard about Clark and how the Colts like to use him in the slot so I don’t think he surprises the Saints there. I definitely don’t feel good about the over/under on receptions (+/- 6.5), but I do like his chances of getting into the end-zone(+105). I mean, the Saints D isn’t exactly scary and somebody’s gotta catch ‘em (God knows Manning’s gonna throw ‘em).

On that note, we get to my favorite guy to play with. I’ve said many-a-time, you NEVER bet against Peyton Manning. Now, the book-makers have begun to shift some of the props over the past few weeks (it was easy money for a while there), but I still think there are some plays to be made. For example, I’ll take the over on the 25.5 completions. I know, it sounds like a lot, but I really think the Colts will be able to dink and dunk the Saints to death and Manning will come away with close to 30 completions. It also tempts me to put down on the +/- 36.5 attempts, but I think I will stay away for now. There are a TON of props on TDs for The MANning and I like a few. I’ll take the over on 2.5 TD passesl. I also like him to throw a TD in the 2nd and/or 4th quarter. There’s no science to this, but let’s just think about how many touches he will get. You already know they won’t start with the ball in either the 1st or 3rd quarter so I don’t like those as much, but it’s the 2-minute drill that pulls me to the 2nd and 4th. If the Colts have the ball at the end of a half, I’ll bet on Manning throwing a TD every day and make money on most.

So those are my props picks. As far as game lines, I don’t like the line at 5.5 so I will stay away. I think this one could come down to the wire, or it could be a blow out so it’s not worth any of my cash. I have mixed emotions on the over/under. At last check it was 56.5 which is pretty high (like 28-27 for a final-ish). Despite the two high-scoring offenses, I could see this one finishing 28-24 or 24-17. Even 30-17 (like the AFC Championship game) doesn’t get you close to the over. On the flip side, both teams could go nuts (like, say the Cards and Packers a few weeks back) so I don’t like the under either.

Well that’s it folks. That’s where my money will and won’t be this weekend. Let us know your thoughts/opinions. If you make or lose some serious cash this weekend (hopefully NOT by following my picks), stop by to let us know. I’ll be sure to keep everyone posted (haha, get the pun?) on how I end up. Hope everyone has a great Super Bowl Sunday and we will catch you on the flip side.