Sugar Bowl Preview

(courtesy of newsday.com)

A few weeks ago, many college football fans around the country would have never believed the Florida Gators could be left out of the National Championship game, but as the first day of the new year quickly approaches, Urban Meyer's (well, sorta) Gator squad is prepping for the Cincinnatti Bearcats and the Sugar Bowl, not the National Championship.  Although Cincy is undefeated, the Gators are heavily favored (by 13 points) coming in to this one and may now have some extra motivation.  In the midst of all the prepration and the pre-game hype about the two teams, attention shifted from the matchup to Florida's head coach, Urban Meyer (who ironically enough is an alum of Cincinnati).

On Saturday, Meyer shocked the football world by announcing he would be leaving the Gators after the Sugar Bowl due to health reasons.  A day later, he retracted his statment and said he would, instead, take an indefinite leave of absence.  Now, with the game only 3 days away, the Gators are faced with losing not only their beloved seniors (and our beloved Tebow), but also their coach.  It is unlikely (in our minds) that Meyer will be able to coach the team next season, and there is no estimate on when he could return.  ESPN has noted that the coach spent time in the hospital following the Gators' loss in the SEC title game due to chest pains, and Sports Illustrated reported that Meyer has suffered from persistent headaches believed to be caused by a cyst, which becomes inflamed by stress, rage and excitement (hmm, I wonder if standing on the sidelines for a game would qualify?). 

(courtesy of soyoked.com)

So now, aside from the natural motivation following a humiliating defeat in a game most of the world picked you to win, the Gators will have the ol' "win one for the Gipper" motivation as well.  The Bearcats will have a slightly different motivation.  The nation's 6th ranked offense (both in total yards and in points scored) lost it's head coach prior to the bowl game, when Brian Kelly jumped ship to go to Notre Dame.  The players, staff and fans were, to say the least, not pleased by his departure just weeks before the Sugar Bowl.  So it seems the motivation on their side of the ball may be more in the form of a certain hand gesture to the new ND coach, who ESPN noted is now attempting to,

"get the Irish where the Bearcats are now: ending a season in the national title conversation, going into a new year without a loss and playing in a big-money bowl for high stakes."

On paper, this looks like a decent matchup.  The Bearcats boast a high-octane offense that has put up nearly 40 points per game (6th) on 465 yards per game (6th).  Most of their damage is done through the air as they are averaging 327 passing yards per game (7th) and only 144 rushing yards per game (65th).  The Gators, meanwhile, are no slouches.  Florida averages 35 points per game (12th) on 442 yards per game (12th).  Their attack, however, is nearly the opposite of Cincy's, doing most of their damage on the ground.  The Gators average 225 rushing yards per game (10th) and only 228 passing yards per game (63rd).  The defense is where Florida looks to have an advantage.  The Gators are giving up only 12 points per game while the Bearcats are giving up 21 points per game. 

(courtesy of gatortailgating.com)

However, the SEC title game showed the nation a few chinks in the Florida armor as Alabama racked up 32 points on 490 total yards.  The Gators had trouble running the ball in that game, collecting only 88 yards on the ground, but spent much of the second half fighting from behind (a part of me wants to make a Tebow remark here, but I will refrain in the spirit of the holiday season).  Look for Cincy to put up some points in this one as they have been able to do all year long.  To me, the real question will be the Bearcats' defense.  They gave up a whopping 44 points on 369 total yards to Pitt in their final game of the season.  However, this isn't the one that concerns me most as Pitt was a formiddable opponent.  The matchp that scares me is the poor performance by this defense against Illinois.  The Illini struggled to compete in the Big Ten this seson, yet were able to amass 36 points on 476 total yards.  If the Bearcats cant't play better than that in the Sugar Bowl, look for Florida to pound them all night long (again, holding back on the Tebow comments). 

The good folks at AccuScore are predicting a final score of Florida 37, Cincinnati 24 making the spread 13 points.  While I think that's a possibility, I also think the Cincy vs. Pitt game should have taught us all that the Bearcats are never out of a game.  They fought back from a 21-point deficit in that one to punch their ticket to New Orleans and I think they could do it again in this one.  I like Florida to win this one, but I think it's closer than 13 points (again, we do not condone gambling in any way, shape or form, unless it involves betting on Peyton Manning to do amazing things).  This one kicks off at 7:30 CT on Friday, January 1st.  You can catch the game on FOX, live from the Superdome in New Orleans.  Be sure to let us know your thoughts on how the game will turn out and stop back by after the game to brag about how you were right and we were wrong.

(courtesy of bcsknowhow.com)

Note: All stats derived from ESPN.com.